First Advisor

Morse, Alan

Document Type

Dissertation

Date Created

5-2018

Department

College of Natural and Health Sciences, Kinesiology Nutrition and Dietetics, KiND Student Work

Abstract

The National Hockey League (NHL) totals market provides an optimal setting to test the theory of efficient markets. Under the notion of market efficiency, prices of an asset are reflexive of all publicly available information, making it impossible to enjoy consistent, above-average, returns. In contrast to the other major professional sporting leagues in North America, the NHL was the last to become fully integrated into sportsbooks, thus making it more susceptible to inefficiencies. To date, there has only been one published study related to the NHL totals market, which found deviations from market efficiency. The present research builds and expands upon these findings by analyzing a more expansive dataset, which included the closing total and associated odds for each contest. Furthermore, the present work analyzed the efficiency and profitability of the market through five betting strategies, each motivated by common heuristics and decision making biases. Results indicated that the NHL totals market was largely efficient, with only one strategy yielding a marginal above-average return. Thus, the influence of heuristics appeared to be appropriately priced in the market. This is consistent with the central premise of the market efficiency, in that financial markets are efficient with regard to any particular strategy or piece of information over a sustained period of time.

Extent

120 pages

Local Identifiers

Traugutt_unco_0161D_10643

Comments

Spring 2018 Graduate Dean's Citation for Outstanding Thesis, Dissertation, and Capstone

Rights Statement

Copyright is held by the author.

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